In addition to several primaries, voters will head to the polls on August 7 to vote in the last special election before the midterms, taking place in Ohio's 12th congressional district. Republican Troy Balderson, a state senator from Muskingum County, will face Democrat Danny O'Connor, the Franklin County recorder. While not seen as very competitive at first, polls have tightened over the past few days and both Trump and Pence have gotten involved, each offering their support to Balderson. Once thought to be a likely GOP seat, the race has become almost reminiscent of Pennsylvania 18, where Conor Lamb pulled off an upset and flipped the seat.
Danny O'Connor is taking a moderate, Lamb-esque approach to the race. He has claimed he would not support Nancy Pelosi, although occasionally dodging the question if possible. His strength comes from Franklin County, home of Colombus and the only county Trump lost in the district. If O'Connor could run up the margins there, he could just stand a chance against Balderson. However, he would not be able to win the race with Franklin alone, as the district only includes the northern part of the county. His path to victory requires him to reach out to rural Ohio, counties where Trump won with over 60%, and in some cases 70%, of the vote. While a solid candidate, Troy Balderson has not had an easy job uniting the party around him. In the primary, Balderson won by only 775 votes against Freedom Caucus-backed Melanie Leneghan. Leneghan did not go down without a fight, challenging the results and citing voter fraud in Muskingum County, Balderson's home county. Conservative analysts are worried that some frustrated Leneghan supporters might stay home, which could prove devastating for Balderson when the race is already close. Balderson does gain a boost from the addition of another candidate, Green Party candidate Joe Manchik. Manchik is a small business owner, not a very well-known individual, but polls have him at around 2%, one having him as high as 5%. In Pennsylvania 18, the race was so close that if Rick Saccone obtained every vote that went to the Libertarian, he would have won. In Monmouth's recent poll, Balderson leads by 1% while Manchik takes 2% of the vote, meaning an O'Connor lead if all of his votes went to the Democrat. Will Manchik be a spoiler? I guess we'll find out on August 7. As of right now, I have this race as a tossup that tilts towards Balderson. Our Prediction: Troy Balderson: 50% Danny O'Connor: 48.2% Joe Manchik: 1.8% In the general election this November, the same rematch between Balderson and O'Connor will occur, except one of them will be the incumbent. Should Balderson emerge victorious on Tuesday, the November rematch will be rated Lean R. However, should O'Connor pull off an upset, this race will be Tilt D in the fall. A full House map should be posted to this site by tomorrow, so stay tuned.
0 Comments
Unlike most states, Tennessee holds its primaries on Thursdays. This cycle, the primaries will be held August 2, which is only a week out from today. On the senate side, where the general election to replace Bob Corker is expected to be very competitive, both primaries are more or less over. Both GOP Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn and Democratic former Governor Phil Bredesen face only token opposition and are the heavy favorites to face each other in the fall.
On the gubernatorial side, however, things are expected to be much more competitive in the primary. The GOP field includes six candidates, but the four who stand out are Congresswoman Diane Black, Speaker of the Tennessee House Beth Harwell, businessman Bill Lee, and former Commissioner of Economic and Community Development Randy Boyd. Polling has been somewhat inconsistent, but most polls have shown Black in a narrow first place followed by Boyd and Lee. President Trump has yet to issue one of his infamous twitter endorsements, although Vice President Pence recently traveled to Tennessee on his tax-cut tour where he met with Blackburn and Black, implying his support for the latter's gubernatorial bid (Trump and Pence both endorsed Blackburn months ago). Members of Congress running for another office have been pretty unlucky this cycle between Jenkins' loss in West Virginia, Labrador's loss in Idaho, and Messer and Rokita's simultaneous defeats in Indiana. Even still, polling does give Black a slight edge, and Pence giving her a shoutout at his campaign-style tax-cut speeches definitely implies an endorsement from Trump at some point in the near future. For these reasons, we give Black a slight edge. Our Prediction: Diane Black: 31% Randy Boyd: 27% Bill Lee: 27% Beth Harwell: 13% Other: 2% On the Democratic side, the race is between former mayor of Nashville Karl Dean and Minority Leader of the Tennessee House Craig Fitzhugh. Polls indicate that unlike the GOP primary, this race will not be close. Dean is polling barely under 50% while Fitzhugh barely pulls 15%. Being the former mayor of the most populous city in Tennessee, a democratic stronghold at that, will most certainly ensure his victory over Fitzhugh. Our Prediction: Karl Dean: 75% Craig Fitzhugh: 23% Other: 2% The Missouri senate primary is on August 7, which is quickly approaching. Most people do not expect this to be competitive, with Attorney General Josh Hawley being the clear frontrunner in a crowded field. Likely second place finisher is Austin Petersen, a former libertarian who ran for president in 2016. Hawley has the endorsements of Trump, Pence, and several key statewide and national figures. Petersen has the endorsement of a few local lawmakers, as well as conservative and libertarian activists who are popular among conservatives online, including Ben Shapiro, Dave Rubin, and Dana Roesch.
Beating Hawley, who has raised 3.3 million compared to Petersen's 500k, is quite a long-shot for Petersen. When one looks at Twitter, it is easy to assume Petersen has a much larger following, which is true, but translating thousands of mostly out-of-state supporters into a victory is easier said than done. That's not to say Petersen hasn't gained a following in the real world, however. Throughout the campaign, Petersen has been an active participant in GOP events and fundraisers, attending most if not all "Lincoln Days" events. He has additionally attended a debate with several other Republican candidates while Hawley did not participate. Petersen performed well at the debate, even as he took stances that were radically different from the other candidates, most notably his opposition to the border wall. The biggest roadblock for Petersen is his previous comments on Trump and his supporters from 2016. These comments could be a turnoff for several anti-Hawley Republicans, causing them to vote for Sykes or Monetti, two hardcore Trump-supporting candidates running in the primary. As a result, the anti-Hawley vote will most likely be split, ensuring a win for the Attorney General even if he does receive fewer than 50% of the vote. Our prediction: AG Josh Hawley: 45% Austin Petersen: 29% Tony Monetti: 11% Courtland Sykes: 4% Other: 11% On the Democratic side, Claire McCaskill faces challenges from several candidates running to her left, although none of them pose a serious threat to her. One of her more prominent opponents is Angelica Earl, a progressive running on Medicare for all, gun control, and raising the minimum wage. While pulling off an upset against McCaskill is even more unlikely than an upset against Hawley on the GOP side, the primary could serve as a referendum on whether or not McCaskill's voters few her as too moderate, especially if Earl could pull 10-20%. Our prediction: Claire McCaskill: 85% Angelica Earl: 5% Other: 10% So this brings us to Claire McCaskill vs Josh Hawley, as well as to the question that several Republicans might just be dreading: did we nominate another Akin? Hawley has already had some moments, one of the more notable ones being when he blamed the "sexual revolution" in the 1960's for human trafficking. This slip-up could just be the least of his problems, however. Hawley's sleepy campaign, dismal fundraising numbers when compared to McCaskill, and inability to inspire a base could prove to be trouble for the AG, not to mention his infamous campaign ad about ladder-climbing coming back to haunt him. Will Hawley lose by 14 points like Todd Akin? Probably not, although we are not about to project a margin of victory for an election still months away. After all, Akin was leading in the polls up until mid-August when he made his remarks on "legitimate rape." As of right now, I have this race as a tossup, but McCaskill has significantly more experience in these sorts of scenarios and has been preparing for well over a year, while Hawley has barely been an elected official for that long. Because of this, I believe McCaskill has the slight edge and this race tilts towards her in my no-tossups map. This race become a different story entirely if Petersen does, in fact, pull off an upset on August 7. Petersen comes without Hawley's baggage, and most Trump supporters would choose him over McCaskill even if they preferred someone else in the primary. Petersen is an interesting type of Republican, which should not come as a surprise given that he wasn't a Republican at all until recently. He is pro-LGBT, pro-marijuana, and supports criminal justice reform. On the other side, he is to the right of most Republicans on gun rights and fiscal issues. These unique stances could allow him to gain the support of millennials and minorities, two groups the GOP struggles with. However, for reasons stated in the above paragraphs I find it unlikely that he will be given the chance to run on these things in a general election. BRD was a running joke within the PredictIt community ever since its phony poll for Pennsylvania 18's special election went viral. However, it has since been a dead account on twitter with very little activity or attention. Since everyone with a functioning brain knows that its polls are, indeed, fake, I have decided to retire the account and instead use BRD for another purpose entirely. The initials now stand for Burger Research Daily, which are more appropriate considering I am theburgermanofoz, not some randy named Timothy Blumenthal.
So what are my intentions for BRD? Well, this will be my site to post my political predictions for the upcoming competitive races in November. I will be posting updates on my @burgermanofoz so be sure to follow to catch up on my latest predictions. Yes, I know there are people who already do this (like SharkoRubio's Political Kiwi), but I believe the more analysis we have, the better. I urge my followers to view both our analyses, as well as that of other smaller political forecasters, in order to receive key viewpoints or information that one might not find on some of the main pundits. Btw, the @brd_polling account will not be deactivated since it can serve as a fun throwback. As I said above, however, it will not be used in the future. |
Archives |