In addition to several primaries, voters will head to the polls on August 7 to vote in the last special election before the midterms, taking place in Ohio's 12th congressional district. Republican Troy Balderson, a state senator from Muskingum County, will face Democrat Danny O'Connor, the Franklin County recorder. While not seen as very competitive at first, polls have tightened over the past few days and both Trump and Pence have gotten involved, each offering their support to Balderson. Once thought to be a likely GOP seat, the race has become almost reminiscent of Pennsylvania 18, where Conor Lamb pulled off an upset and flipped the seat.
Danny O'Connor is taking a moderate, Lamb-esque approach to the race. He has claimed he would not support Nancy Pelosi, although occasionally dodging the question if possible. His strength comes from Franklin County, home of Colombus and the only county Trump lost in the district. If O'Connor could run up the margins there, he could just stand a chance against Balderson. However, he would not be able to win the race with Franklin alone, as the district only includes the northern part of the county. His path to victory requires him to reach out to rural Ohio, counties where Trump won with over 60%, and in some cases 70%, of the vote. While a solid candidate, Troy Balderson has not had an easy job uniting the party around him. In the primary, Balderson won by only 775 votes against Freedom Caucus-backed Melanie Leneghan. Leneghan did not go down without a fight, challenging the results and citing voter fraud in Muskingum County, Balderson's home county. Conservative analysts are worried that some frustrated Leneghan supporters might stay home, which could prove devastating for Balderson when the race is already close. Balderson does gain a boost from the addition of another candidate, Green Party candidate Joe Manchik. Manchik is a small business owner, not a very well-known individual, but polls have him at around 2%, one having him as high as 5%. In Pennsylvania 18, the race was so close that if Rick Saccone obtained every vote that went to the Libertarian, he would have won. In Monmouth's recent poll, Balderson leads by 1% while Manchik takes 2% of the vote, meaning an O'Connor lead if all of his votes went to the Democrat. Will Manchik be a spoiler? I guess we'll find out on August 7. As of right now, I have this race as a tossup that tilts towards Balderson. Our Prediction: Troy Balderson: 50% Danny O'Connor: 48.2% Joe Manchik: 1.8% In the general election this November, the same rematch between Balderson and O'Connor will occur, except one of them will be the incumbent. Should Balderson emerge victorious on Tuesday, the November rematch will be rated Lean R. However, should O'Connor pull off an upset, this race will be Tilt D in the fall. A full House map should be posted to this site by tomorrow, so stay tuned.
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